leakage

This is an important rider to additionality and refers to the degree that the project simply shifts the problem elsewhere. There is, for instance, no net gain if a farmer sells one land parcel then uses the money to buy and clear another. The potential ramifications are endless so leakage is hard to quantify, particularly as they extend further away from the project site.

Brugmansia aurea, Ecuador. © Andrew
Smiley

The IPPC recommends that ‘Land Use Change and Forestry’ projects discount estimated benefits by 30-40% to allow for leakage. The World Land Trust uses the full 40% discount unless there is good reason to do otherwise – e.g. the land-owner is known to have used the money to retire, leaving farming for good, or an agri-business, unable to clear in one area, has not simply cleared another.

The World Land Trust also holds back a proportion of the estimated offsets to allow for uncertainties in the initial assumptions made, and against unforeseen circumstances (such as land-slides, fire, disease etc.) that could affect delivery. This is usually 10% for a Kyoto compliant action and 20% for a non-compliant one. Safeguards against foreseeable risks are also built into project budgets – e.g. training and financial support for protection, fire control etc.

In other words, up to 60% of the estimated benefits are not treated as offsets. This, in addition to conservative calculations, gives a good safety margin.